Nobody warned us it would be like this.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup — the first ever to feature 48 teams across three North American host nations — was supposed to hand the traditional giants an easier ride. Bigger pools, more places, gentler paths. Instead, it has produced one of the most chaotic, unpredictable group stages in the tournament’s history, followed by a round of 32 that has already knocked out some of the most storied names in world football.
The minnows came to play. And they refused to go home quietly.
Here are the biggest upsets that have defined FIFA World Cup 2026 so far.
Table of Contents
1. Paraguay Knock Out Germany — And a Nation Declares a Holiday
This is the one that stopped the world.
Paraguay came into the round of 32 as significant underdogs. They had been thrashed by the USA in their group opener and had barely scraped through. Germany, four-time world champions, were expected to dispatch them routinely and march deeper into the tournament.
Instead, Paraguay produced the performance of their lives. Julio Enciso powered home a header to put the South Americans ahead in the first half. Kai Havertz equalised for Germany in the 52nd minute, and the match ground into extra time without another goal. Then came penalties — and Paraguay held their nerve while Germany, remarkably, did not. José Canale converted the decisive spot-kick to seal a 4-3 shootout victory, sending one of world football’s superpowers home in the round of 32.
The aftermath was extraordinary. Paraguayan president Santiago Peña declared the following day a national holiday. Players wept on the pitch. The dressing room footage that circulated online showed grown men barely able to speak. It was the first time Germany had ever lost a penalty shootout at a World Cup, having won their previous four. Paraguay ended that record — and in doing so, produced what is being called the greatest upset in World Cup knockout stage history.
2. Morocco Stun the Netherlands in a Penalty Thriller
On the same dramatic night that Paraguay were eliminating Germany, Morocco were producing their own stunning chapter in Monterrey.
The Netherlands, one of Europe’s most dangerous sides, looked to have done enough when Cody Gakpo — playing with immense personal emotion just days after announcing the loss of his unborn son — headed home in the 72nd minute to put the Dutch in front. It appeared to be enough. Then Morocco’s Issa Diop glanced in a header in the first minute of injury time, and everything changed.
Extra time produced no goals, despite Soufiane Rahimi going clean through on goal in the 96th minute, only to be denied by a jaw-dropping save from Dutch goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen. Penalties decided it. Morocco goalkeeper Yassine Bounou was the hero, saving Crysencio Summerville’s kick, before Ismael Saibari stepped up to roll home the winner and send Morocco into the round of 16. The final shootout score: 3-2 to Morocco. The Netherlands, for all their talent, were going home.
It was a result that underlined something the Atlas Lions have been proving since their extraordinary 2022 semi-final run: they are not a fluke. They are a team built to hurt you.
3. Cape Verde Hold Spain — In Their First Ever World Cup
Before a ball had even been kicked in the knockout rounds, the group stage had already delivered its share of chaos. The most eye-catching moment came in Atlanta, where Cape Verde — an island nation of barely 525,000 people, ranked 67th in the world, playing in their very first World Cup — held Spain to a goalless draw.
Spain, the co-favourites. Spain, the side with one of the deepest squads in the tournament. Cape Verde did not just frustrate them — they matched them. They backed it up by drawing 2-2 with Uruguay in their next match, coming from behind through a fearless late goal from Helio Varela. The tiny island nation went unbeaten in the group stage and advanced to the knockout rounds, taking the place that Uruguay had expected to occupy. For a country competing in their debut World Cup, it was nothing short of extraordinary.
4. DR Congo Stun Portugal — 52 Years After Their Last World Cup
DR Congo returned to the World Cup for the first time since 1974, when they competed under the name Zaire. Their preparations had been disrupted by an Ebola outbreak back home. Their opponents on matchday one were Portugal — Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, and a squad packed with Premier League and La Liga stars.
It did not matter. Yoane Wissa powered home a header in first-half stoppage time to cancel out João Neves’s early opener, earning the Leopards a 1-1 draw and their first ever World Cup point. Congo DR registered more shots on target than Portugal on the day, rattled the post through Cedric Bakambu, and came desperately close to winning it. They went on to qualify for the round of 32 as one of the best third-placed teams — the first time in their history they had ever reached the World Cup knockout stages. The moment Wissa’s header hit the net, 52 years of waiting collapsed into pure, uncontained joy.
5. Australia Beat Turkey — The Upset Everyone Forgot to Talk About
Turkey arrived as one of the most fashionable dark horse picks of the entire tournament. Arda Güler, their brilliant young playmaker, had been dazzling for Real Madrid. Analysts tipped them to go deep into the knockouts. Instead, Australia — the Socceroos — beat them 2-0 with a performance built on relentless pressing, discipline, and desire. Connor Metcalfe’s low strike sealed the points. Turkey never recovered, finishing their group stage campaign in shock, with Güler later issuing a public apology to fans. While Paraguay’s demolition of Germany grabbed the headlines, Australia’s win over Turkey deserves far more credit than it received — the Socceroos beat a side ranked significantly higher than them and made it look almost routine.
Why This World Cup Is Different
The reason these upsets keep happening is not hard to find. The players representing the so-called minnows at this World Cup are not strangers to elite football. They play in Europe’s top leagues every single week. They face the very opponents they are now beating on the biggest stage in club football before they meet them here. The fear has evaporated. The gap in quality has shrunk dramatically.
Add to that a punishing schedule, brutal North American summer heat, long travel distances between host cities, and a new format where even third-placed teams can advance — and the conditions for chaos are perfectly set. The favourites have nowhere to hide and very little margin for error.
As the tournament enters the round of 16, one thing is already certain: nobody — not the bookmakers, not the pundits, not the fans — can say with confidence what happens next. That is the 2026 FIFA World Cup. And it is only getting started.
Which upset shocked you the most? Drop your pick in the comments — and share this with someone who still cannot believe Germany are out.
Tags: FIFA World Cup 2026 upsets, Paraguay vs Germany 2026, Morocco vs Netherlands 2026, Cape Verde World Cup, DR Congo World Cup 2026, biggest World Cup shocks 2026, underdog stories World Cup 2026
